Investing.com — Ryanair (LON:0RYA) on Monday revised its fiscal 2026 passenger traffic growth target due to ongoing delays in the delivery of aircraft from Boeing (NYSE:BA).
The airline now expects to carry 206 million passengers in fiscal 2026, down from its original target of 210 million, reflecting a modest 3% reduction in growth projections.
The revision is attributed to continued delays in the production and delivery of Boeing’s 737-8200 “Gamechanger” aircraft.
While Boeing’s production is recovering from disruptions, including a strike in late 2024, Ryanair does not anticipate sufficient deliveries to meet its initial fiscal 2026 traffic goals.
“We see longer term attractions to Ryanair’s low-cost, and relatively high-margin (and so high ROCE/ ROIC) business model,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note.
“We see FCF yields stepping up to >10% by FY26E as capex steps down, leaving scope for further shareholder returns,” RBC added.
The company noted that these delays have constrained its ability to allocate aircraft efficiently across routes and regions.
It remains hopeful that the 29 remaining Gamechanger aircraft in its 210-unit orderbook will be delivered by March 2026, enabling it to recover the delayed growth during the summer of 2026.
“Ryanair hopes/ expects to recover this growth in summer 2026, and we expect modest capacity growth to be supportive for unit revenues,” said analysts at RBC.
The airline is also preparing for the integration of the MAX-10 model, which Boeing expects to certify in late 2025. The first 15 MAX-10 aircraft are scheduled for delivery in spring 2027, supporting Ryanair’s longer-term growth plans.
To mitigate the impact of the delivery delays, Ryanair is reallocating capacity to regions such as Poland, Sweden, and Italy, where government policies, including reduced aviation taxes and growth incentives, support expansion. Nearly all of its summer 2025 capacity, which includes 164 new routes, is already on sale.
As part of its quarterly results for the three months ending December 31, 2024, Ryanair reported a profit after tax of €149 million, up from €15 million in the same period last year.
Passenger traffic increased by 9% to 45 million, while total revenue rose by 10% to €2.96 billion. Ancillary revenue also saw a 10% boost, driven by increased passenger spending on add-ons like seat reservations and priority boarding.
Despite the challenges posed by Boeing’s delays, Ryanair remains confident in its long-term traffic growth ambitions, reaffirming its goal of reaching 300 million passengers annually by 2034.
“At this stage, we are cautiously guiding FY25 PAT in a range of €1.55bn to €1.61bn. The final FY25 PAT outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse external developments between now and the end of Mar., incl. the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, further Boeing delivery delays and ATC mismanagement/short-staffing here in Europe,” the company said in a statement.
