ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkey’s inflation rate is expected to rise by 1.61% in December from the previous month and stand at 45.2% year-on-year, with the annual rate seen falling to 26.5% by the end of 2025, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The median estimate of 10 economists saw annual inflation falling to 45.2% in December from 47.09% in November, standing closer to the upper end of central bank’s year-end prediction range. Forecasts ranged from 44.9% to 45.54%.
Monthly inflation is expected to slow from previous readings due to easing food price rises and a limited rise in energy, economists said. Forecasts ranged between 1.4% and 1.84%.
Economists will also look at the course of services inflation, which showed signs of slowing in recent months, following the announcement of 30% increase in minimum wage for 2025, a level far less than requested by workers.
In November, inflation was higher than expected at 47.09% annually and 2.24% on a monthly basis on the back of food, housing and health-related prices.
The central bank, having kept its key interest rate steady at 50% since March, cut it by 250 basis points to 47.5% on Thursday.
The central bank said it will set policy “prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook,” and respond to any expected “significant and persistent deterioration”.
The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 26.5% by year-end, based on the median estimate. Forecasts ranged between 25% and 29%. The central bank sees inflation falling to 21% in the same period, and is expected to cut rates further next year.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will release December inflation data at 0700 GMT on Jan 3.
