WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November, but that is unlikely to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a third time next week against the backdrop of a cooling labor market.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the largest gain since April after advancing 0.2% for four straight months, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through November, the CPI climbed 2.7% after increasing 2.6% in October.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 0.3% and advancing 2.7% year-on-year.
The annual increase in inflation has slowed considerably from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Nonetheless, progress in lowering inflation down to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target has virtually stalled in recent months.
The Fed is, however, now more focused on the labor market. Though job growth accelerated in November after being severely restricted by strikes and hurricanes in October, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% after holding at 4.1% for two consecutive months.
Early on Wednesday, financial markets saw a roughly 86% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool.
Fewer rate cuts are, however, expected next year than had been anticipated a few months ago.
Though slower inflation is forecast next year amid a moderation in rents and rising labor market slack, that could be offset by higher prices from tariffs and mass deportations that have been promised by President-elect Donald Trump.
“From a fundamental standpoint, we do not see material upside risk to inflation,” said Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America Securities. “That said, progress on inflation should stall next year given our expected changes to tariffs, fiscal and immigration policies.”
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% in November, rising by the same margin for the fourth consecutive month.
In the 12 months through November, the so-called core CPI gained 3.3%. That followed a similar advance in October.
The Fed kicked off its monetary policy easing cycle in September. Its benchmark overnight interest rate is now in the 4.50%-4.75% range, having been hiked by 5.25 percentage points between March 2022 and July 2023 to tame inflation.
