Investing.com — Capital Economics strategist James Reilly expressed skepticism about the implications of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory for U.S. equities, arguing that the win is not unequivocally beneficial for the stock market.
While some market participants have celebrated the potential deregulatory and tax policies, the strategist warns of uncertainties that could weigh on performance.
Capital Economics points to the potential for tariffs and trade tensions under a Trump administration, which could hurt corporate profits and global supply chains.
“We aren’t convinced that Trump’s win is a net positive for US stocks,” said Reilly. “We think his policies will be negative for growth.”
In addition, the strategist said he doubts he will deliver another major fiscal expansion.
Even so, Capital Economics remains bullish on U.S. stocks based on the artificial intelligence hype “fueling a stock market bubble” and the fact they do not believe the election has undermined that story.
The firm maintained its S&P 500 end-of-2025 forecast at 7,000. For the same reason, they continue to believe that tech sectors will continue to lead the market.
However, Capital Economics analysts have revised their targets for the stock markets of other economies as they believe that, much like during 2018 following the start of the initial Trump trade war, “tariffs will take a heavy toll.”
