(Reuters) -The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates on Thursday and signalled the need to scrutinise global economic developments, highlighting its focus on risks to a fragile domestic recovery in deciding when to next tighten policy.
Following are excerpts from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments at his post-meeting news conference, which was conducted in Japanese, as translated by Reuters:
NEXT RATE HIKE
“As for the timing of the next rate hike, we have not preset idea. We will scrutinise data available at the time at each policy meeting, and update our view on the economy and outlook, in deciding policy.”
ON U.S. ECONOMY
“We have seen some positive U.S. data recently. But there is still uncertainty on how past rate hikes by the Fed affect the economy and prices. We need to monitor developments carefully.
“When we used language that we can ‘afford to spend time’ gauging risks, weak U.S. jobs data led to volatile market moves, which we saw as having a grave impact on Japan’s economy, more so than other data.
“Since then, we have seen some fairly good U.S. data. We are still not completely confident about the U.S. outlook, which is why we added a line in the report’s policy guidance.
“If U.S. developments continue to improve, this risk will subside to the level of other risks.”
BROADENING PASS-THROUGH OF RISING WAGES
“When we look at the latest Tokyo CPI data, there are signs the pass-through of rising wages on services prices is broadening. We’d like to scrutinise whether such broadening will happen at the nationwide level.”
WAGES AND PRICES
“Looking at domestic data, wages and prices are moving in line with our forecast. As for downside risks to the U.S. and overseas economies, we’re seeing clouds clear a bit.
“Risks surrounding the U.S. economy are subsiding since summer. But there are other risks, so we are not 100% sure of our baseline scenario. We can only begin to take the next step when such confidence heightens further.”
RISK BALANCE SURROUNDING JAPAN’S INFLATION
“We’ve seen companies’ price and wage-setting behaviour start to change in the past two years. It’s uncertain whether this trend will strengthen or peter. The impact of currency volatility and commodity price moves on domestic import prices is also key.”
WAGE GROWTH AND RATE HIKE CHANCES
“If we see wage hikes around the same level of this year’s, that would be a positive development for us. But that alone won’t directly lead to rate hikes.”
DOMESTIC POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY AND BOJ POLICY
“Recent political developments alone won’t directly affect our price forecasts. But if there are big changes in policy, we will revise our forecasts as needed taking into account the impact of such moves.”
