MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s annual inflation rate likely fell again in September, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday, raising expectations that the central bank will continue cutting its benchmark interest rate.
The median estimate from 10 analysts was for the overall consumer price index (CPI) for September to fall to 4.62%, its lowest level since March, though that would still be above the bank’s official target rate of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point.
Core inflation, which strips out some especially volatile food and energy prices, likely eased in September to 3.96%, ticking down for the 20th consecutive month.
Last month, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year, bringing it down to 10.50%. The bank’s board has noted that cooling prices will likely mean it can keep lowering borrowing costs.
Central bank Governor Victoria Rodriguez said last week that future cuts could be bigger so long as the inflation rate continues to fall.
In September, consumer prices likely edged up 0.09% from the previous month while core prices are expected to have ticked up 0.32%, according to the poll.
Mexico’s central bank has two more monetary policy decisions scheduled later this year, on Nov. 14 and Dec. 19, and the institution’s most recent survey of analysts showed that most expect the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 10% and dip to 8% in 2025.
National statistics institute INEGI will release official consumer price data for September on Wednesday.
